The Inevitability of Open Access - Preprint

Open access (OA)”, writes David W. Lewis, Dean of the IUPUI University Library, Indianapolis, in this preprint (submitted on 11 September 2011, due for publication in July 2012), “is an alternative business model for the publication of scholarly journals. It makes articles freely available to readers on the Internet and covers the costs associated with publication through means other than subscriptions. This article argues that Gold OA, where all of the articles of a journal are available at the time of publication, is a disruptive innovation as defined by business theorist Clayton Christensen. Using methods described by Christensen we can predict the growth of Gold OA. This analysis suggests that Gold OA could account for 50% of the scholarly journal articles sometime between 2017 and 2021, and 90% of articles as soon as 2020 and more conservatively by 2025.”

The link is to the full .pdf text of this interesting essay. Museum people should read it, looking for analogies in their own field…

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